Archive for October, 2009

Clocking in at just over 1,500 pages the Senate health care reform bill is long and dense. As a blogger on HotAir calculated, “[a]t a steady clip of two minutes per page, working a full eight hour day, you’d be through it in just under a week.” So it’s understandable if you missed some things tucked in to the bill. Each day over the next week I’ll be highlighting something that may surprise you about the health care reforms making their way through the Senate…

#1: Taking Pointers from Enron

Democrats lauded the Congressional Budget Office pronouncement that the health bill “will result in a net reduction in federal budget deficit of $81 billion over the 2010-2019 period. Besides the inherent ridiculousness of the government spending billions of dollars while simultaneously cutting the deficit, there are some questionable accounting procedures that allow reform to look much more attractive than it really is.

The most blatant of these tricks comes in what Congressman John Shadegg labeled “an Enron-style scam” which counts 10 years of revenue against 7 years of costs. The bill presented to the CBO counts tax increases, Medicare cuts, and penalties beginning in 2010. The bulk of expenditures, paid out when the health care programs go into effect, does not begin until 2013 – allowing the government a 3 year window to hoard money before covering the massive tab for health care.

Every company in America could be profitable if we allowed them to cook their books by counting 10 years of income and 7 years of expenses. As Shadegg described the situation, “people go to jail for this type of accounting; in the U.S. Senate, they trumpet it as good news.”

The 2008 elections are remembered as the Year of the Young Voter. They registered and voted in staggering numbers. Using new tools such as Youtube, Twitter, and Facebook, youth transformed politics and elections forever. When it was all said and done, Barack Obama captured the 18-29 age group by a 2-to-1 margin over John McCain, catapulting him into the presidency. But now, as the healthcare debate rages on, pundits and politicians are left asking “where are the youth?” The answer: “we’re here, you’re just not paying us any attention.”

A recent poll by SurveyUSA found that health care is high on the agenda of the youth demographic. Of people 18-24, 59% said they were paying a lot of attention to the debate. Nevertheless, this rates much lower than other groups, such as those aged 60-69, of which 85% were paying a lot of attention. There have been a number of attempts at explanation ranging from a return to political apathy to the generation’s sense of invincibility. But, a significant portion of the blame must fall on the White House who has done very little to cater to the needs of 18-29 year olds. As Mike Connery, founder of FutureMajority said of the president’s attempt to engage the youth in the debate, “they are not sending a targeted appeal to young people to drive home that this is really important.”

The White House’s failure to bring 18-29 year olds into the debate mirrors the fact that the health care bills being discussed ignore the needs of young adults. Michael Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, argues that a requirement to purchase insurance will disproportionately hurt youth. He argues that young, relatively healthy people will be forced to subsidize the healthcare needs of older people while simultaneously increasing the costs of their plans. As Tanner says, “young people are probably one of the groups that’s going to come out the worst on this,” explaining that “they’re going to pay more in the short term because they’re going to have to go out and buy health insurance. And they’re going to pay more in the long term.”

As more young adults have become aware of how the plan will affect them, their support for reform has dropped. Polls taken by the Economist/YouGov show:

Overall Impact of Health Care Reform Plan Among 18-29 Year Olds

As the graph shows, after June 21-23 the number of young adults who believe that the health care reform plan will leave them better off has plummeted from a high of 30.2% to 14.9%. Further, the number of youth who believe they will be worse off if health reform is passed, jumped from 24.9% to 32.5% over the same span. A September Economist/YouGov poll, even after seeing a bump in support due to Obama’s nationally televised speech, found that among young adults:

• 58.2% believed that the deficit would increase by billions of dollars if health care was passed
• 49.9% believed that health care would have to be rationed under health care plans
• Only 13.5% favor fining people who refuse to purchase health insurance
• A minority, 41.3% favor a requirement that forces everyone to have health insurance
• By a 57% to 43% margin, young people view big government as a bigger threat than big business

These numbers reflect growing unease with the idea of government forcing young people to use their salaries to buy more healthcare than they may need. All the reform legislation being debated in Congress require 18-29 year olds to buy at least minimum coverage. The reason: mandating young people’s participation is key to financing it. Shailagh Murray, writer for the Washington Post, described youth as “low-cost additions to insurance pools [which] would help dilute the expense of covering older, sicker people.” But is forcing young adults, often with the lowest incomes and best health, to buy expensive coverage the right solution? Polls show that increasingly young adults are realizing the answer is “no.”

The headlines are doom and gloom.

The underlying story is not much better. 53.4% of young Americans aged 16-24 looking for a job are unemployed. Even worse for young adults, studies suggest that extended periods of joblessness will depress lifetime income and long-term damage to upward mobility for an entire generation.

The situation faced by Millenials is a Catch-22. Many are returning to school to give the job market time to heat up. But when the economy finally recovers, a larger pool of students will be competing for a reduced number of spots. As job-seeker Emma Gilbody responded in an interview, “when we graduate next year there’ll be a backlog of people from this year still looking for jobs.”

Adding to the problem, young people applying for schools are increasingly being squeezed out due to a confluence of factors such as the laid-off returning to school, a government funding crunch, and increased competition from those shunned from the job market. Worst of all, the government is doing little to help.

Following Obama’s first 100 days in office, he proclaimed that “in the midst of the worst economic crisis in half a century, we passed the most sweeping economic recovery act in history.” He went on in a string of promises to extol the virtues of his $787 billion stimulus plan:

• “We are going to create 2.5 million jobs”
• “That is how we will achieve the Number one goal of my plan, which is to create 3 million new jobs”
• “The report confirms that our plan will help save or create at least two-and-a-half million jobs . . . and save billions of dollars”

For all the grand rhetoric, the results have been decidedly less exciting. Consider…

• Since the start of the recession the number of unemployed has increased by 7.6 million people
• The unemployment rate has more than doubled to 9.8%
• As of September 35.6% of the unemployed were jobless for 27 weeks or more
• 1,916,000 people were laid off in September – the highest ever for one month
• 1.1 million job seekers that are new entrants to the workforce have yet to find a job

It is clear that the stimulus has failed. What Obama and the Democratic Congress are doing to solve the problem is less clear. Instead the White House is talking out of both sides of its mouth. On the one hand Joe Biden claimed that the “Recovery Act is doing more, faster and more efficiently and more effectively than most people predicted.” On the other hand, senior Obama advisor David Axelrod recently said, “We’re thinking through all additional potential strategies for accelerating job creation.” Rasmussen polls since February show a sharp drop in 18-29 year olds’ belief that the economic stimulus plan has been a success:

Will the Stimulus Help or Hurt the Economy (18-29 yrs)

Despite simultaneously pronouncing success and recommending more big-spending policies, the administration’s collective focus has been on health care reform and cap and trade legislation – policies that will negatively impact youth (who are struggling to find jobs) and small businesses (who are doing their best to create them). As job losses mount and a generation is being buried under a mountain of debt, teens and recent graduates wait for the administration to listen to their concerns. For a president who rode them to victory, he’s done little to make them a priority. In doing so he risks another lost generation.

“Now’s not the time to pat ourselves on the back . . . now is the time to dig in and work even harder to get this done”, Obama told reporters after the Senate Finance Committee passed a version of health care reform.

As Democrats continues to plow ahead with reform plans, the public has shown increasing dislike for the idea. With 1/6 of our entire economy on the line, the health and pocket books of millions of people at risk, and the financial future of the country at stake…you’d think he would take the time to listen to the people most affected.  Instead, Obama is digging in. This is despite recent Rasmussen polls showing downward trending support for health care reform, with a recent uptick in opposition:

Public Support for Health Care Reform

The poll also displays some further reasons Obama and the Senate should refrain from patting themselves on the back:

• While 42% of those polled “Strongly Opposed” the reform plan, only 24% strongly favor it
• 59% of seniors oppose the plan
• By a 56%-to-18% margin, voters say that the costs of health care will go up, rather than down, if reform legislation is passed
• 68% of those polled have health insurance that they rate as “good” or “excellent”
• 51% of voters say that the quality of health care will get worse if the congressional plan passes, while 23% say that health care will get better
• 55% of people oppose the idea that young and healthy Americans will either be forced to buy health care or pay a penalty

Public discontent with the congressional plan to tinker with health care has recently spilled over into the 18-29 year old demographic, which previously had been the largest supporter of reform.

Costs of Health Care After Reform

Quality of Care After Reform

College Republicans are tapping into this growing discontent among young adults by organizing a Tutor Congress Day to educate congressmen about the detrimental impact of reform proposals on youth and the general public. College Republican chapters from universities across the country will send students to local congressional offices to educate the public and members of Congress about the unintended consequences of reform. President Obama has promised to “dig in and work even harder” to push health care reform through Congress; young adults must work just as hard to ensure that it doesn’t.

Republican Bob McDonnell has widened his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race to become governor of Virginia, carried by strong support among conservatives, independents, and youth.

As a result of Deeds’ flailing campaign, Obama, in an attempt to preserve valuable political capital has subtly removed himself from the race. After making one campaign appearance for Deeds earlier this year, Obama has refused to commit to any further events on behalf of Deeds. As one anonymous Democratic strategist said, “they’re looking at movement in the polls and calculating how far out in this race they want to see the president go…In New Jersey the path to victory is a little clearer, but I think in both cases they’re making the calculation on how much of the win or the loss are they willing to own.”

Deeds, sensing that support from the White House may be more risk than reward, has taken steps away from the president’s agenda. Speaking about Obama’s effect on the race Deeds said, “Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough. We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C.”

The infighting and political sniping could signal problems for 2009-10 when 39 states will elect governors – especially important given the redistricting that will occur following the census. Adding to the stakes is the clear opportunity for Republicans to make significant gains in the House of Representatives and put the brakes on Obama’s agenda. In Vice President Biden’s own words, “If they take them back, this is the end of the road for what Barack and I are trying to do.”

Leading the charge for McDonnell in Virginia has been the surprising youth vote, who less than a year ago overwhelmingly supported Obama. The most recent Survey USA poll shows McDonnell leading the 18-34 demographic by a 56%-to-43% margin, the latest in a steady climb in support for the GOP candidate.

Virginia Gubernatorial Youth Vote (18-34)

Guiding young adults’ shift to the Republican Party have been the significant efforts of the College Republicans. One of our main projects has been organizing and implementing the Virginia Task Force. Through this project we have recruited over 400 students, representing 10 states and dozens of campuses who will travel to Virginia to recruit voters for a McDonnell victory. College Republicans ability to tap into the enthusiasm of young voters is key, not only for ensuring victory in 2009, but also for building a solid demographic foundation for the future. In the words of a young McDonnell campaign worker, “We have the enthusiasm that Obama’s people had last time.”

The Rasmussen poll internals offer some further explanation into McDonnell’s significant advantage at the polls:

• Following Deeds recent ambiguous responses when asked about tax increases the public, by a 52% to 35% margin trusts McDonnell more than Deeds on the issue of taxes

• Voters also trust McDonnell more than Deeds by 52%-to-27% margin on cutting government spending
• On the key issue of transportation, 13% more voters trust McDonnell more than Deeds – an improvement over previous studies which found the candidates even
• 46% of Virginians say they have a favorable view of Deeds – dropping 4% in two weeks
• 23% of potential voters claim a very unfavorable view of Deeds compared to only 13% who say the same about McDonnell

With less than a month until voters cast their votes at the ballot box, McDonnell has taken a strong lead in the polls by tapping into youth support. As the race hits the final stretch Republicans have the chance to make an authoritative statement on Obama’s agenda and energize the conservative electorate for the crucial 2010 midterm elections.